A Few Predictions for the Future of News

As broadband Internet availability increases throughout the U.S. and hand-held devices become more powerful, more and more news will be delivered via the Web. It will not be long before we can harness all of the power of the Internet on our cell phones at broadband speeds. Plenty of written word news will survive, but on-demand video will continue to grow in popularity as more of us carry devices that quickly deliver it. As mobile interfaces improve and more content is easily accessed and navigated on hand-held devices, media organizations will become more specialized. We will no longer expect news organizations to also be a primary source of information about food, entertainment, travel or other lifestyle concerns -- we will seek information from experts in each subject. Americans will continue to worship their televisions, but soon the Internet will make it possible to watch any program on-demand, which will make it possible to take self-customization to a new level. All of this is going to make things difficult for advertisers, until they figure out new ways to deliver their messages.

As the global economic crisis continues to develop, it seems as if the organizations with best chance of surviving are the most financially healthy of the major news outlets and efficiently run, web-only enterprises. Today, the news collection and delivery business is worth many billions of dollars in the U.S., but to most investors there is no growth potential. The news in recent days and weeks of media organizations filing for bankruptcy and restructuring their newsrooms will almost certainly mean that fewer people will remain paid journalists in the near and long term. Many journalist will find new jobs at their trade, but even more will not as the industry consolidates. I think that from the mess, a small handful of highly respectable news organizations will (re)emerge. The product may come at a more direct expense to the audience (not as highly-subsidized by advertisers), or perhaps a few will flourish as non-profits. But, like any marketplace niche, the needs of news-junkie will be met.

The U.S. democracy is facing countless threats, both internally and externally generated. To some extent the news media is culpable for not clearly illuminating those threats, they should be held responsible. however, their failure is largely a failure of the marketplace to demand a different level coverage.