The Future

Looking out into the future ten years, I am certain that we will see marked changes in both the print and broadcast mediums and in mainstream media in particular. I envision that we will continue to witness an evolutionary process that is being facilitated by the introduction of ever new technology driven communication of the news, while at the same time the decline of mainstream media is being rapidly accelerated by economic forces.

Although I do not envision the demise of any medium within the next ten years I believe that there will be some individual players, particularly in the print medium that may not be able to hang on long enough to weather the present economic crisis. The economic models that once ensured the profitability of mainstream media no longer work and the opportunities to further cut operating costs are dwindling for most, and their basic cost structure will make them increasingly uncompetitive. Not only have U.S. newspaper circulation counts declined to where they were sixty years ago but they will never regain the dominance in important revenue generators such as automotive and employment classifieds. Web based classified listings, such as ebay and Craig’s List, have seriously eroded the revenue streams derived from other classified categories as well. These challenges are not limited to newspapers; other print media such as magazines as well as broadcast mediums are suffering meaningful declines in advertiser revenue as a result of the economic downturn. At this time, retail advertising is perhaps the single remaining robust source of advertiser revenue for many and even this is at risk because of the increasing number of stores closing or going out of business.

Today’s bankruptcy filing by the Chicago Tribune and reports of the necessity of The New York Times to seriously consider mortgaging their headquarters to help make ends meet, at least for now, underscores the role economics has and will continue to play in shaping The Future of the News. These types of events seem to be hitting closer and closer to home. Last weeks Star Tribune’s plea to its union membership indicated that concessions are absolutely crucial as “the survival of the company is at stake.” Some daily newspapers are no longer being published daily and others have or are contemplating merging with one time rivals to prolong their existence.

I remain unsure as to how all of the news in the age of the digital revolution is going to be funded. I am sure that advertisements will somehow play a role and maybe I would pay a subscriber fee to have access to certain news sites. I am told that there was a time when it was certain that no one would ever pay for watching TV because you can get it over the airwaves for free. However, might we be witnessing a trade of mainstream media’s often times monopolistic mindset into a “build it and they will come” theory of funding technology driven media with an economic model similar to the “new economics” that lead the crash of tech stocks earlier this decade? Might Twitter be an example of this thinking?

There are many who believe that history will note that the 2008 presidential election marked the beginning of a rapid decline in mainstream media’s influence over national politics. A continued erosion of mainstream media’s credibility coupled with the newly active involvement of a large web savvy but previously apathetic segment of the voting public maybe arguably good for democracy but not so for the viability of mainstream media.

Many newspapers, as part of their cost cutting efforts, have been reducing their staff levels, which I believe compromises the quality of their core product, the news. It is certain that with the 2008 elections over that many publishers have already or will be letting go those individuals whose focus or expertise rested in the political arena. These types of staff reductions will certainly hasten the decline of credible reporting and analysis, and along with it mainstream medias’ future influence on politics. Outsourcing, crowdsourcing, freelance writers, reporters, and photographers, as well as amateur contributors will be expected to fill in the void left by the full time professionals who have exited the field.

Some attempts at re-styling the form, appearance and content by some newspapers in an effort to appeal to a younger demographic tended to alienate their core readership which led to unanticipated further declines in circulation.

To me it appears that we will be witnessing secular changes that will affect the future of the news. I believe it will not be analogous to the automobile replacing the horse and buggy but more like the changes that took place to radio broadcasting when television was introduced. Perhaps the most resent innovation that I have heard of is a “mashup” called Dipity that is being fed by the news found on Twitter, Flickr, Digg, etc.

I believe that the future holds the greatest opportunity for some yet to be defined cross-media/multi-platform approach to delivering the news that will capitalize upon the best aspects of each component. However, with technology changing so many of the aspects of the world will live at an ever increasing rate I find it difficult to accurately predict just exactly what the world of the news will look like ten years out. If you had been asleep for the last ten years and just awoke today you would certainly be astonished at how technology has changed the world since you last saw it in 1998 and in ways you had never envisioned