Predictions

My after school job in high school was working at a record store. It was about the same time that CDs were just starting to catch on and come down in price. Around that time that everyone started to predict the end of vinyl albums. Twenty years later and everyone is predicting the end of CDs and music distribution by record companies. However, vinyl records are making a comeback, and not just with DJs and indie music fans. Granted, the casual music fan isn’t rushing out to pick up the latest Beyonce record on vinyl, but it’s a growing (and apparently profitable) niche.

It’s funny but, people have also been predicting the demise of the print media for the last 25 years or so and it’s still here. Sure, there have been contractions and consolidations. I remember when “the end is near” predictions first started there were morning and afternoon newspapers in Minneapolis. Ah, but that was B.C. (before cable). Inevitably it seems everyone points a finger at the rise of cable television as the beginning of the end for print media. Well, it’s been an excruciatingly long, slow death, if it is in fact even dying.

I believe it’s going to away much in the same way vinyl records have gone away. In other words – it’s not. The demand may go down, but I don’t think it’s going to completely replaced. Things will change. Online newspapers will grow, certainly. The profitability of web versus traditional print media makes that change inevitable. Or perhaps that would be better explained as the cost of traditional print media makes the web all the more attractive.

With the shift to web-based newspapers (news outlets? news sources? news-delivery? – I dunno, but we’re going to need a new term) will come a shift in the economic model news media uses. Much like vinyl records the online newspapers (news media isn’t quite specific enough, it’s too inclusive of streaming T.V. news, streaming movies, etc. we really need to find a new term) will operate in a niche, albeit on a (hopefully) larger scale. Much like the casual music listeners aren’t the right target for vinyl records, the new online newspapers might not be the right market for casual news consumer. Basically, the legacy print media need to recognize that they can’t be all things to all people. Maybe this means that larger news organizations will need to create different venues for different audiences.

The biggest hurdle to quality journalism is the financial model so many media companies are operating under. A new model must be developed, one that recognizes that a reasonable profit is enough instead of constantly pushing to maximize profits. It’s very possible that an NPR like model will develop, where people “belong” to one or more news provider services as a contributing member. This could end up being a very empowering community development tool and I can see it being used along with the social media links like Twitter, Facebook, blogs, etc. in bringing readers (viewers, visitors, whatever) together.

I predict problems with the growth of community journalism. I see the reason for this growth is mostly driven by economic forces and not as a way to personalize or get closer to the news “consumer”. A switch to a web-based delivery system could remove the economic factors and still allow for ways to engage with the community. Professional standards and ethics is the biggest potential problem and expecting editors to be gatekeepers and teachers as well as the last and perhaps only line of defense is too much to expect from someone. I honestly predict that what’s going to happen in the near future is that many who are currently writing and shooting for free or low pay will get to a point where they will find they either have a serious passion for the work and decide to do it professionally or they will find that the time and other investments aren’t rewarding enough and drop out.

As that shake out happens, I believe the public will grow more concerned about where their news comes from and start to look for the trained and best able to explain what the days events mean. I guess this is the “Islands of Quality” concept that was being discussed in class.

I can see partisan media continuing to grow until it is very easy to search out the viewpoints that you agree with and completely avoid those with which you disagree. However, I see a backlash happen that brings with it nostalgia for old school journalism – hard hitting, in depth, investigative journalism, stories that make a difference.

But maybe this is all wishful thinking on my part.